EUR/USD Forex Trading FOREX.com UK

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

What do you think of this hedging method

Hello everyone, currently a new trader in forex, been doing pretty well recently with trading. So I was wondering about this hedging method that popped in my mind.
Suppose I want to go long on EUUSD at 1.2000, setting my SL at 1.1950 and TP at 1.2050 with 0.1 lot and I trust this trade with my life, but of course, an even effective risk management is even better. So....
I set a hedging trade for the above trade, shorting EUUSD below the the SL of the above long trade(1.1950), let's say at 1.1930 and setting its SL at 1.1970 and a TP at 1.1900, BUT the key factor here is, I will set a lot size for this short trade at 0.3(short position) vs 0.1(long position) when the above long position revereses.
Also to keep in mind, there should be a gap between a SL of the long position and the sell stop of the short position, avoiding the retracement in case the long position goes up.
What are your opinions on this.
Thanks in advance
submitted by Ayman_Rocco980 to Forex [link] [comments]

Emerging markets: Premature rally

BNP Paribas






submitted by Altruistic_Camel to econmonitor [link] [comments]

CMC Markets: is everything in CFDs? If so, how do the forward date ones work?

I just started a demo account with CMC Markets, and I was wondering if every single asset listed is traded as a CFD? When learning about forex from BabyPips I had the mentality as if I'm literally trading the currency; as in if it were in person, I'd be giving some coins in one currency and receiving another. I guess since CFDs are linear derivatives it doesn't matter as much, but I still feel like there are some additional considerations when trading CFDs vs "actual currency"? Also, what are the maturities on these? Are there even maturities? All the quotes just say "USD/CAD", "EUJPY" etc, but from my understanding of a CFD, you agree to pay the difference from actual and agreed, much like a future, so why are there no maturities?

Question 2: For CFDs on things like equity indices, they seem to trade the whole day unlike their underlying. Does this mean say at 9pm EST the S&P500 CFD is just people essentially betting on tomorrow's open? And again with the futures thing, does after-market hours trading in these CFDs affect the real opening price the next day? (If markets are efficient and we assume there are people watching CFD prices like future prices, and then tomorrow's early trades become based on what the futures markets seem to say about the S&P, holding news and other things constant).

Question 3: For CFDs with maturity dates like commodities on this platform, how does that work? Again, I'm mostly confused at how CFDs operate without maturities and how they different from futures. On the CMC markets platform, many agricultural commodities come with the suffixes like either "cash" or a maturity date, but currencies and equity indices do not. What does this mean? Those commodities I'm clicking trade on...am I trading a corn CFD? Or a CFD on corn futures? What exactly is the underlying mechanic?
Question 4: yet another example. For the bond indices...what am I looking at on the platform? I just want to get a chart of US treasury yields but I don't think that is available on CMC. What am I looking at when I click UK Gilt Cash or US T-Bond Cash or US T-Bond Jun 2020?

Tl;dr Don't understand the mechanics of CFDs and thus I'm not sure what EXACTLY I'm actually trading when I trade things like currency, equity indices, commodities. Surely I'm not actually trading a physical commodity or actual shares. Please note this is specific to CMC markets.
Thanks :)
submitted by fittyfive9 to Forex [link] [comments]

The GBP is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest as NA traders enter

The GBP is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest as NA traders enter. The GBP is the strongest, but the gains are relatively modest. THe USD is mixed in the morning snapshot with the greenback higher vs the EUR, JPY, CHF, CAD and down vs the GBP and AUD. It is unchanged vs the NZD. The volatility is down in the forex market. Each of the major currency pairs and crosses are trading well below their 22 day averages. The JPY pairs moved lower earlier in the day, but have rebounded with the GBPJPY leading the way (up 55 pips). The USDCAD has given up earlier gains and trades back toward unchanged on the day (up 14 pips after being up around 90 pips at the high)
submitted by Nelvid to Forex [link] [comments]

Saudi Oil Attack

Hey guys just seeing what your ideas are.
I only have a forex trading account. Trade on and off since 2011. Lifetime I’m in the green (or black?) but by no means close to professional.
Anyways JPY holiday I believe Monday.
I’m looking for CAD to have some buying pressure in some pairs.
CAD vs GBP, AUD, NZD, for example and maybe EUR.
I can see JPY and USD strength in most pairs for security with this risk. so hesitant on trading CAD here.
A lot of unknowns. How long oil disrupted. 3 days? 3weeks?
Houthi’s on their own. Iran directing houthis Directly Iran (I cant see this but never say never)
Also I am not a Middle East expert in the slightest.
submitted by wowthatssorude to Forex [link] [comments]

Market Makers Tin Foil Hat

Came across couple threads on here about people discussing SL hunting Market Makers and quite a few said that all this is baloney... Since its Friday and I just finished analyzing the screws ups of the week, I decided to write a short post about the matter from my experience as my PERSONAL opinion.
To begin with, Stock Trading and Options communities have a general consensus that some kind of 'shady activities' occur. It's actually almost a mainstream idea, thanks to movies like Wolf of Wallstreet and people like Musky with his 'funding secured'. Along with countless other charged and non charged insider trading individuals and entities.
I imagine I don’t have to explain the ‘crypto’ market a place where they actually run ads to join a group and then pump and dump some shitty coin.
Anyway enough of other folks, lets move on to Forex. To cut it simply, Banks have already been caught red handed collaborating in chat rooms on how to manipulate the price to their advantage. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-banks-forex-settlement-idUSKBN0O50CQ20150520)
So this should answer your question if there WAS Market Maker who moved markets.... Yes there was and its not some conspiracy theory, they've been found, charged, fined. Its up to you to decide if this is still going on or just stopped overnight.
Do these people SL hunt your individual positions? No, but what they do is seek liquidity... Chances are, you have placed SL after your usual textbook analysis at a major support/resistance as many other retailers... Experienced Whale traders at CITI, JP etc know where you have these SL. They also know where you most likely placed your pending buy/sell with tight SL. All they have to do is drive the price enough to take out all of the above and stopped out positions will fuel their direction... Combine that with creation of some 'other pattern' and you have bunch of other people jumping on the train going same directions as the institutional trader. Job done.
Now onto the Brokers.
From my experience, there is no such thing as a good Market Maker Broker... Yes there are absolute awful unregulated ones with dealing desk where you will most likely never withdraw any profits and some not so bad ones like Oanda, Forex without a dealing desk.
Ask how Oanda, Forex.com make their money... They will tell you its by spreads... Open up Oanda and check out average spreads and go to 'maximum' ... You will see some rather crazy spreads during news that if you ever traded on ECN would seem alien to you... Same goes to Rollover... Its up to you to decide if these things are just because Oanda and Gain have liquidity providers that are extremely in-flexible or.....
Lets not go far for a recent example, just open up EUUSD 1Minute chart of todays closing. ECN broker closed today at 1.6220 vs 1.6225 aka 0.5 pip spread and thats as high as the price went in last closing minutes... Spread did not jump anywhere much really - I was there to watch it.
Now lets open up Oanda chart on Tradingview... What do we see here? A spike to 1.16262 on last minute - now lets go and check Oandas maximum spread at this exact time, we find that it is exactly 6 pips.
Lets look at the chart again and think where a small time 'retail trader' that trades on small TF's would put their SL. Probably at 1.16254, 1.16282, 1.16293 area and lastly (same as me) 1.16323 area... Neither one of these would have been hit if you traded with ECN Broker... All of these with exception of last one (would be a really close call) would have been hit by Oanda or Forex.com today. Again its up to you to decide if this is just because Gain and Oanda have such 'interesting' liquidity providers or a broker that makes money on spreads is... you know... making money on spreads...
So here is my 2 cents... This again is my personal opinion.
submitted by Mozdar to Forex [link] [comments]

What is the cap to how much you can make?

Without disrupting your own strategies.
We all know that the Forex market is bigger than the Stock market, Though what is rarerly mentioned is the leverage used in Forex vs Stock.
I.E the 5+ trillion a day is partly based on the 100-500 leverage used by most retail traders out there, even the hedge funds use 3-5x leverage.Thats why brokers like IC markets can do a monthly volume of 550 Billion.While stock trading or an average stock trader perhaps doesn't even use leverage.Thats why i believe the money behind these turnovers (Actual money in the account) isn´t that different Stock vs Forex Even though i still believe, thanks to the banks etc that the money behind Forex is still bigger.

So anyways, let´s say one has a strategy that produces 2 Profit Factor, on average has a 60+ pip gain.In 2-4 minutes i could be in a 10,000 lot position in E/U (splitting up my entries) without affecting the market? Without any slippage.thats 10,000x10USD per pip = 100,000 per pip; 60 pip move = 6mil per trade.
So the only difference on me making 600USD instead of 6mil per trade, is the time it takes to fill it.
My question is, does this affect your strategy? butterfly effect.Getting in the market in about 5 min times without slippage in a 5 trillion dollar market (EUUSD is around 1.5+)Should in theory not disrupt the efficiency of your strategy, and making 600 USD vs 6 mil should be the same end result.The market soaked up your 10k lot position in 5 minutes without slippage, the end results should be same, or?.
The only problem i see is the exit, which would always take a couple of minutes and perhaps you lose your edge,From 2 a Profit factor strategy to about 1.7-1.8 (which is still very good)

I am a profitable trader (not rich) but scaling works great in Forex, and one daydreams of what if any limit there really is.
submitted by CharmingImpact to Forex [link] [comments]

What should exchanges do better?

What are all the ways that exchanges can be made better? What are things new exchanges should focus on to innovate and attract users? I want to start a conversation on this. Here are few things:
  1. Decentralized exchanges: lots gets spoken about in the centralized vs decentralized model, don't want to repeat too much
  2. Future Contracts: Futures exchanges like Bitmex have 2 major advantages: 1) You can make money when BTC price is going down by shorting it, 2) Leverage (one way to think about it is I can trade with putting less crypto on the exchange)
  3. Lower Trading Fee: Should exchanges start charging a flat fee per trade? How big of a deal is fees to most traders? Most care about liquidity and anyways most exchanges have the same fee structure
  4. UI/UX to calculate profile & loss
  5. Lower withdrawal fees: Exchanges make a decent markup on fees compared to what they pay
  6. Fiat options: Few major ones have this given current legal situation. Also, opportunity to pay deposits in local currency rather than USD, EUR, GBP
  7. Trading bots: create a platform where users get these tools that typically only pros have access to
  8. Demo Mode Trading: Some forex platforms have this, where you are trading with real money.
  9. Operational improvements: Better security, better tech to handle load, better customer support

What else would you consider important? Which ones of these do you rank as important?
submitted by gpoddar10 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency markets challenges and solutions

This has been bugging me for a while so thank you for endulging my rambling. TL;DR at the end.
I'd like for everyone to just think about what we're trying to do here. Don't forget what the ultimate goal is. Anyone remember? Is it to make a profit? No, that's a secondary goal. The primary goal is to develop widespread adoption of cryptocurrency as an alternative to fiat currency. Anyone remember this lofty goal or did we all forget this while chasing 30% daily price swings. We're trying to complete with USD, GBP, EUR, and CNY, remember?
This is EUR vs. USD. You'll note that this is all data (or click on "All" button on the bottom), going back to 1993 through today. What do you notice? You'll notice an open of $1.22 to €1. After a few months, it fell about 10%, then rose up 24% over the next two years only to drop about 40% over seven years and then almost doubling over eight years only to drop about a third in the last ten years to where it is today - almost where we were 25 years ago (approximately).
This is BTC vs. USD. You'll note that this is all data going back to 2011. During the last seven years it has... oh my God are you kidding me?! This is LTC vs. USD.
Let's not forget what we're talking about. We're talking about currency. For currency to be used, it needs to be relatively stable. Now compare the charts above. Let's say we created a new country called Cryptonia. Which of these would you like to use as currency? EUR? BTC? LTC? My money is on EUR. Why? Because it's relatively stable.
Now let's fast forward a bit and pretend that Cryptonia has adopted Litecoin as its official currency. Our largest trading partner is the US. How would transactions between merchants work in this scenario, taking into account the last few days. I'll use the following prices:
Let's run through a transaction:
1/16
1/17
1/18:
Conclusion:
This works both ways as far as you can do the math in USD vs. LTC to see how this screws over at least one party due to the wild price swings. Note: fiat currency does the same thing with one key difference explained later on.
Don't forget that this is all within 3 days. Now sure, obviously the last few days isn't something that happens every day ... but doesn't it? Look at the examples of EUR:USD. Any sharp spikes or drops have taken months to execute - enough time for relative prices to adjust. Look at cryptocurrency prices - the swings (from a percentage basis) are wild on a regular basis. In short, cryptocurrency isn't acting like currency. It's acting like an asset and not just an asset but a highly speculative one. The IRS is right to treat it like an asset because if it looks like an asset, and it acts like an asset, then it is an asset.
Where do I believe this should go? I believe cryptocurrency market needs to mature. I believe these drastic price swings need to stop. When will this happen? I believe it'll happen when the cryptocurrency market reaches a happy plateau where the market cap has reached a point where the buyers and sellers mostly eliminate one another and the relatively large price swings - from a percent point of view - are as boring as Mr. Stein. EUR vs. USD went up 0.03% today. 0.03%. In LTC-speek, that's going up $0.58 for the whole day. Oh and it was a wild ride too. Why it went all the way down to $1.21697 and all the way up to 1.22645. I know, I know - tie me down because I'm out of control.
Is this the only problem? No. Cryptocurrency has another problem and that's the sheer number of types of coins available. How many coins are available? 1,448. Nearly 1,500 coins all competing with each other for market share. We have Bitcoin at about $200b all the way to something like Digital Money Bits (DMB, an appropriate acronym). What is it? Who cares, it's worth $3,832. Not $3.832 billion or million but literally $3,832 with a volume of $35,509 today and hey, just this June, its market cap reached an all time high of $62,000! You missed the recent run-up though and boy did you miss it. On January 1st, its market cap was worth almost five hundred dollars! Yep, about two Litecoins! But look at it now - it went from $500 market cap to $3,832 in less than three weeks. Clearly this one is shooting to the moon.
This is a problem. Decentralization has an unfortunate side effect of - duh - nobody being in charge. There's no real clearance for these and some people with a little bit of money can literally copy and paste a whitepaper and have this chart and have a serious valuation of almost $17b from $140 million in literally 30 days. This doesn't act like a currency either. This is a problem.
Don't forget, this isn't like the dot-com era. We're not launching IPO's and .com companies that have different ideas. Amazon isn't like Ebay, or Google, or Yahoo, or Facebook or anything else. They all have different ideas for different segments of the population. We are in the cryptocurrency market. The world today has 180 fiat currencies. Cryptocurrency market is approaching 1,500. We need to trim the fat and the outright forgeries. Market cap isn't enough to weed them out. There needs to be something, a stabilizing force, that should act as a clearinghouse for launch of new cryptocurrencies. The market has failed to destroy shitcoins. Heck, it rewarded them based on lies, paid endorsements, FOMO, and FUD for other coins. This doesn't help the cryptocurrency market. It helps a few people get really wealthy really quickly and you are left holding the bag, so to speak. Should coins only be allowed to be introduced when its network reaches a certain hash rate? Isn't that the only objective point of value we have - number of mathematical calculations and power used in those calculations? You can't fake that.
What's another problem with cryptocurrency? It's what it represents. The governments don't see crypto as a positive force. After all, it directly competes with their own currencies. Can the governments shut this down? No - this is the Internet, after all. But they can kill it in other ways. I don't know how many people here remember but my first brush with Bitcoin was the ransomware viruses which wanted $300 in Bitcoin to unlock files. Bitcoin was seen as something tied to illegal activities. If governments - and let's say the US, South Korea, and China in particular - ban Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in particular then what they'll really do is make transactions illegal. What's the on-ramp and off-ramp to/from crypto? The banks which are already regulated. Now let's say you're in the US, your bank account is tied to your Coinbase account and you have some cryptocurrency. US issues a regulation which states that trading cryptocurrency is now illegal. It issues orders to all US banks to shut down related accounts. The following things will happen: cryptocurrency prices will tank and everyone is going to scramble taking money out which would likely overload the system, causing massive delays.
But let's say you're left holding your crypto and it's been a month. What can you do with it? Not much. Crypto isn't accepted in enough places yet. You can continue holding, hoping the price and ability to extract will come back one day. After all, you can't get your money back. Your bank closed your related account. You can open another one at any new bank but they'll either ban you from connecting your account to Coinbase or they'll confiscate any money coming from Coinbase and charge you with a crime. Now have the governments banned crypto? No - you can use and trade crypto all you want since it can't be traced. But have they effectively? Yes. Ironically, it's the banks that'll save us and I think that's why Ripple blew up. After all, if you have a cryptocurrency that sucks the bank's [censored] and plays along, you can get:
I think that's why something like Ripple blew up - because it doesn't care much about regular people, it wants to be the speedy highway for bank<->bank transfers.
What's a solution to this problem? More regulation and playing nice with the governments. Crypto isn't going mainstream if you shut out all governments. It needs to be connected. This means working with regulators to make sure that KYC laws are followed, that people report and pay money on any gains, and that - to a point - there's some supervision and tracing of transactions in a way that if you're robbed, you can get your money back. This will create a new job field, which - considering our current growth - will create a whole slew of high-paying white-collar jobs. Considering the high-level of transactions, banks would start this, followed by private companies, governments, and law-enforcement agencies. A good way to start this is what CBOE and CME have started to do - legitimize the currency. This is a foot in the door to the real holy grail: FOREX markets. When it's legitimized and not in serious competition with governments, it'll be embraced and its availability - along with instant transfers and low fees - will be widely supported by serious platforms.
Until these problems are fixed, the cryptocurrency market will remain what it is today: a speculative asset and not a currency. During the time it's taken me to write this post, Litecoin has gone up 2.6%. Euro remains at 0.03% gain.
Thanks for reading!
TL;DR
submitted by SsurebreC to LitecoinTraders [link] [comments]

New Beginner info / FAQ section for futures

I feel like with all the cheating and drama going on with spot fx we should at the very least have a dedicated section on the right for guidance on futures contracts.
The shady Cypriot brokers and ones on other random islands are lying and selling a dream so let's take a look at the reality of spot fx...
Currency markets are the most liquid and active markets of any sector. However, there is also a great deal of misinformation, slick advertising, and even outright deception regarding this $2 Trillion Dollar a Day marketplace. For starters, a large percentage of that $2 Trillion is traded through what is referred to as the interbank market. The interbank market is the top-level foreign exchange market where banks exchange different currencies. This trading between banks is not accessible to retail traders and is estimated to account for the vast majority of the Trillion Dollar liquidity factor that attracts so many retail traders in the first place.
Here are a few of the reasons to trade futures:
-Level playing field for all participants
-Deep liquidity on major currency contracts
-Safety and security of central clearing
If your Forex brokerage firm uses a dealing desk, your buy and sell orders never actually reach the true Forex market. In other words, you do not have access to the inter-bank market. Instead you are buying and selling at prices set, and potentially manipulated by the dealing desk. This is known as conflict of interest.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange guarantees each transaction. Futures contracts are legally binding! This means that if you go long a currency futures contract and your speculation was correct, you will walk away from the trade with your profit even if the person that took the other side of the trade fails to pay. This is what we call counterparty risk.
Take a moment, have a break and take a look at all the horror stories on forex factory, for instance.
Whether you are a large institution or an individual trader, everyone is on equal footing when it comes to pricing currency futures. EVERYBODY gets the same price regardless of who you are (individual or mega bank). Best price wins, it is as simple as that — something that is not always the case in the fragmented OTC FX market. The spreads are also very tight if you trade liquid future contracts.
Spot fx brokers also control their price feeds. They can widen the spreads as they see fit and they can really screw you over if they want to. Believe me when I say that most fx brokers don't want you to win! Even the ones that claim to have liquidity providers... Those are nothing but price feeds. Quotes. Nothing more....
And Forex firms offering a "fixed" 3-5 point spread may not be charging traders commission outright, or even in a form that shows up on an account statement, but there are significant costs built into the synthetic market that they provide to you.
No middle man, no market maker. Yes, Forex is an electronic market, but your order still ends up on a "dealing desk" where a human handles your order. Or an algorithm... Basically, a Market Maker. He could make you or break you. With E-mini Futures you have a level playing field. You trade on a centralised and CFTC regulated exchange. Whether you're Goldman Sachs or Joe from Idaho, you get equal treatment!
If you're worried about Liquidity - 1.5-3m contracts trade hands everyday on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Contract. If you want in or out of a position, there is almost always someone waiting and willing to take the other side of your trade (24/5) just 1 tick away. This simply isn't true for all Forex Pairs.
Low Cost of Doing Business - Commissions on a self directed SP500 E-mini Trade (ES) should be no more than $3.00 per side or $6.00 per round turn. While many Forex Brokers tout "Zero Commission", we all know there's no free lunch. Forex Brokers don't need to charge a commission because they make money off of the bid/ask spread "they create" and then take the other side of your trade. Run the numbers... for every $100 in profits or loss, you will spend a larger % in "cost of doing business" in the Forex Market than you will in the S&P E-mini Market. Don't take my word for it... go take some real trades and you'll quickly see the truth.
Zero Interest - If you you trade the ES intraday, expect to put up $500 per contract as a "bond" for lack of a better term. That's it. No hidden cost. Forex however, has a "cost of carry" associated which means interest may be charged or paid on positions taken.
Fiduciary Responsibility - Even regulated US Forex firms are not required to segregate customer funds. If a regulated firm goes under, you do not have the protection of the CFTC and the NFA as you do in the Futures Markets.
Turn ON The Volume Please - In Forex, since there is no centralised exchange, it is impossible to get a true read on volume. Not so with the S&P 500 "ES" E-mini. Simply turn on the volume indicator and you have exact numbers for Volume Analysis. GS and CITI have huge research departments with hundreds of employees, but they know nothing about volume that you don't know via a free indicator on your direct access trading platform. Just one more example of the level playing field we constantly speak of.
Centralised Clearing - All trades are cleared via the CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All trades, including time and sales, are public information and posted in real time.
Edit: By the way, if you're worried about discrepancies, currency futures charts look almost exactly the same as their spot fx siblings! So you can easily apply your current strategy to this market, too!
A great example would be "M6E" vs "EUUSD"
SO GUYS, LET'S ACCEPT REALITY AND LET'S DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. DO YOU AGREE?
Source: cfrn.net
submitted by Fighterboy89 to Forex [link] [comments]

Established Strategies You Can Use In Forex Trading

Both down market and up market patterns are visible, but one is more dominant. You should aim to select the trades based on the trends.

Adjust your position each time you open up a new trade, based on the charts you're studying. Traders often open in the same position and spend more than they should or not a sufficient amount. Vary your position depending on the trades above you if you want to be profitable in the market.

Some currency pairs have what is called an inverse relationship with another currency pair. What this means is that when one pair is trending upwards, the other trends downward (and vice-versa). The classic example is that of the EUUSD vs. the USD/CHF. This comes about because the Swiss economy is closely tied with the rest of the European economy. Additionally, there is the common factor of the US dollar in both pairs.

If you are just starting out in Forex and you are still hesitant about investing your own money, sign up for a demo account with a broker that will enable you to try out your Forex investment skills. Demo accounts allow you to trade with virtual money. It is a great way for you to practice without risking any real money.

You should try Forex trading without the pressure of real money. By practicing live trading under real market conditions, you can get a feel for the Forex market without using actual currency. You can also get some excellent trading advice through online tutorials. Gather as much information as you can, and practice a lot of trading with your demo account, before you move on to trading with money.

It may seem like it is you against the world sometimes when it comes to dealing with Forex trading. With the vast amount of information available online, it can be nearly overwhelming at first. This article will provide much helpful information for you to get started on the right path.

Begin as a Forex trader by setting attainable goals and sticking with those goals. Establishing goals, and deadlines for meeting those goals, is extremely important when you're trading in Forex. Keep in mind that the timetable you create should have room for error. If this is your first-time trading, you will probably make mistakes. Additionally, calculate a realistic amount of time that you can spend trading, and make sure to factor in time spent researching.

You should pay attention to the larger time frames above the one-hour chart. Technology can even allow you to track Forex down to 15-minute intervals. The thing is that fluctuations occur all the time and it's sometimes random luck what happens. You do not need stress in your life, stay with long cycles.

Be sure that you always open up in a different position based on the market. There are Forex traders who always open using the same position. They often end up committing more cash than they intended and don't have enough money. Learn to adjust your trading accordingly for any chance of success.

Learning about the currency pair you choose is important. It can take a long time to learn different pairs, so don't hold up your trading education by waiting until you learn every single pair. It's better to pick a pair in which you are interested, do your research, and understand how volatile the pair is. Follow and news reports and take a look at forecasting for your currency pair.

As a beginner in Forex, you will need to determine what time frames you will prefer trading in. To make plans for getting in and out of trades quickly, rely on the 15-minute and hourly charts to plan your entry and exit points. A scalper, for example, might refer to the five- and ten-minute charts to complete trades within a matter of minutes.

Utilize resources at hand, such as exchange market signals, to facilitate purchases or sell-outs. Forex Robots Software allows you to set alerts that sound once the market reaches a certain rate. Figure out your exit and entry points ahead of time to avoid losing time to decision-making.

Many traders make careless decisions when they start making money based upon greed and excitement. Consequently, not having enough confidence can also cause you to lose money. Work hard to maintain control of your emotions and only act once you have all of the facts - never act based on your feelings.

If you are new to the trading market, you should begin your account with a small initial deposit. This minimizes your losses if you were to lose your money. Instead of depositing more money, you should try to make gains through the money that you initially invested, and then place the money into further investments.

Be sure that your account has a Stop-loss in place. Stop-losses are like free insurance for your trading. If you do not set up any type of Stop-loss order, and there happens to be a large move that was not expected, you can wind up losing quite a bit of money. Your capital can be preserved with Stop-loss orders.
submitted by forexrobotspro to u/forexrobotspro [link] [comments]

How can I manage my stop loss in synthetic minor pairs via currency futures

I'm switching from forex to currency futures, and I'm trying to figure out how to handle stoplosses when trading synthetic minor pairs. For instance if I tried to go long EURAUD via a synthetic pair, I may be stopped out of the EURUSD long because the USD was strong, whereas I would have still been long EUR in EURAUD because the USD wouldn't have been a factor. I'm guessing the USD portion would work itself out AUDUSD short, but if the USD were to reverse I would have been stopped out of the EURUSD long prematurely, vs still being in the EURAUD long because the USD influence wouldn't have had an effect on price action.
submitted by GlobalMacroGang to investing [link] [comments]

Derivatives Trading is on the Edge of a New World With Artificial Intelligence on Level01

Derivatives Trading is on the Edge of a New World With Artificial Intelligence on Level01
https://preview.redd.it/2r0yyzpr9z321.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d3d9fa506588761696133140ca38af266215f29
Could artificial intelligence in trading become the new normal? Advances in technology and new standards surrounding automated trading are pushing us ever closer to transforming the industry. If this sounds very much like a science fiction movie, we can assure you it is not.
In fact, artificial intelligence (AI) is already being utilized by banks, but its going to take a little longer for people to catch up to the idea that their investment is as safe, if not safer than it would be if their investments were handled by humans. An analysis by Accenture indicates that between 2018 and 2022, banks that invest in AI and human-machine collaboration at the same rate as top-performing businesses could boost their revenue by an average of 34 percent. AI’s application is proven to improve efficiencies or customer outcomes and the software-development team at Level01 is working hard to achieve a human-machine collaborated future in derivatives trading — to help people trade better, with ease and peace of mind.
As far as discernment in artificial intelligence in trading go, algorithmic trading is perhaps the most discussed of all. If we take a closer look at its application today, automated trading reflects our attitudes towards technology and how it is evolving the way we invest. Yet much of the discussion is still fixated on the hypothetical scenarios that automated trading would take over human jobs. Much less weight is being placed on the fact that AI through its fundamental form known to many as algorithmic trading has been used by institutional and retail investors for almost a decade now. “But there’s an obvious gap between institutional and retail users when it comes to trading and we aim to bridge that gap by creating a ‘level playing field’ for Level01 users. We do this by empowering them with our AI price discovery mechanism known as ‘FairSense’” says Naglis Vysniauskas, Head Quant Developer at Level01. “The AI was built using cross-stream analytics that were previously available only to institutional organizations.”
From helping investors to assess true market value of the contracts to enabling them to continuously update their bid or offer price relative to the implied fair value by FairSense, plenty of functions were built in to support human-collaborated trading, rather than substituting it. Introducing these features on a sleek user-friendly app is a strategic step-by-step approach to help the public get used to a whole different way of investing on an efficient and trustworthy Peer to Peer Derivatives Market platform like Level01. “People will experience trading at speeds, liquidity, freedom, accountability and transparency that have never been available before” says Vysniauskas. Those that find it hard to believe, can now experience trading on Level01 without limitations traditionally set by brokers, who would force their clients to accept their given price, disallow clients from dictating the best execution and insist that clients to trade at a ‘spread vs. mid’ (clients have no power to negotiate the level of spreads which they pay). The level of freedom granted to users on Level01 is enticing and highly persuasive.
“On the Level01 Derivatives Exchange platform, retail investors (or users as we call them) can trade against multiple peers or brokers, and this enables them to find best execution available,” says Vysniauskas. “Also, the ability to specify a fixed spread to fair value of an instrument could potentially reduce trading spreads significantly for large investors.” The practicality of this feature though may not fit small investors though, because leaving fixed bid or offer prices without continuous adjustment would be risky in markets where sudden movements are common. “That is why we built Level01 to give users the freedom to continuously update their bid or offer price relative to the implied fair value by FairSense, this is so that if the trade is not a match, the bid or offer price is updated continuously as market moves to ensure that it is always priced competitively relative to the most recent fair value” adds Vysniauskas.
HOW DOES FAIRSENSE WORK TO LEVEL01 USER’S ADVANTAGE? For the purposes of explaining how FairSense AI helps users on Level01, we take a look at this case study of a Binary Option Example on EUUSD Forex Pair.
https://preview.redd.it/qqiilcks9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfff89ed36c8051751e93f072c5c5f89b2ecace5
A 10-minute binary put option is being offered at a $59.73 (fair value +$0.50). The order is not filled or matched almost immediately, and after 4 seconds, the EUUSD spot price has moved by 1.5 pips and the fair value has not moved above the investor’s offer price.
In this case, a contract is being offered below fair value.
Now take a look at Chart 01 below. You can see that the relationship of the fair value of an option with the spot EUUSD price. You can tell that the fair value is highly dependent on the spot rate. Thus, if a retail investor submits an offer to an exchange, it might be filled at a time when it is already below the fair value — an undesirable scenario for investors. Such scenarios will stop investors from submitting further offers to the exchange.
https://preview.redd.it/v9gfxbit9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=fea9e3720a679b5f79e0306409c73f71844210ac
To resolve this common problem, Level01’s FairSense AI enables all investors to quote ‘relative offers’ to FairSense’s fair value. This allows investors to simultaneously compete for the best offers without imposing them with a requirement to have their own algorithms for price estimation and having them continuously updating the quote manually.
https://preview.redd.it/4lmbz3du9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd59e23b3bab3d0d0097f5a0016bf489ddbbae4f
In many ways, having AI as the norm will become essential to creating investment outcomes that are optimized for every type of investor, truly transforming the way trading is done. With an advanced Blockchain platform, AI and inbuilt frameworks that are designed to favor the user, Level01 will shape the future of automated trading on its Peer to Peer Derivatives Exchange at scale and speed that the world will come to marvel.
submitted by Level01Exchange to u/Level01Exchange [link] [comments]

Looking for Beta Users for Groundbreaking P2P Swap Trading System, Maximum Leverage, Minimum Risk, All Markets

I'm looking for traders to take positions (either in agreement with, or contrary to) my research/opinion or using your own trade setups and fundamental/macro outlook - via our P2P swap platform. You can use actual capital or I can give you test capital, basically, play money, to trade with me and my team and all I ask for is feedback on the system and the ability to quote you (which is not mandatory, but it would be nice). You can trade stocks, bonds, commodities, forex and forex pairs long or short, or swap the exposures directly for another asset, ex. S&P 500 for the LSE 100, Apple for Google, etc. Fees start at 5 bp, the best available from anywhere. Digital leverage is available, up to 10,000x worth (double digit profits/losses can be had from 11 basis points in movement, or less - so be careful), with no possibility of a Margin Call since the trades are pre-funded. If you think the opportunity is worthwhile, feel free to contact us or see info sheet below for more...
Macro Trading Has a New Power Tool: Peer to Peer, Counterparty Risk-Free Swaps for Value Transfer & Trading
Trade the value of over 45,000 tickers of instruments in every asset class from every major geography and exchange with up to 10,000x pricing leverage without concerns of counterparty/credit/default risk or margin calls. Very big claims… substantiated by a very big discovery in value transfer and security.
Veritaseum is the worldwide leader in the financial implementation of “smart contracts” – unbreakable, self-executing bilateral agreements between two or more parties. We use these smart contracts to create peer to peer swaps for the transfer of value through the “blockchain,” a worldwide, open ledger of pseudonymous transactions that can be seen and audited by anyone, any time in the cloud. The blockchain is considered unhackable and one of the most secure implementations of cryptography to date.
With the use of financial “wallets”, client side applications that use a simple interface to guide users in the quick (as in minutes – enter ticker(s), amount to risk, collateral, expiry and leverage required) creation of a smart contract (in this case a P2P swap), users trade OTC directly with other parties – totally bypassing and intermediating exchanges, with even less risk. Monetary value is committed up front, a leverage factor is digitally dialed in (anywhere from 2x to 10,000x) and the smart contract is created and sent to the blockchain to await a match. Once matched, the funds are locked into the transaction until expiry, at which point profits and losses are distributed along with principal and unused collateral (the capital chosen to be put at risk). A novel, risk averse, extremely powerful, and quite frankly - ingenious way to trade macro strategies.
Not only can one go long or short any ticker in any asset class from any region for any currency, one can go long one ticker relative to another. For instance, those with a bearish outlook on the S&P 500 normally short it for USD. You can now short (pay) the S&P 500 index directly while going long (receiving) Eurozone equities (or 10 year treasury yields, or Swiss francs or the CNYJPY pair or bitocin), in a single transaction – with or out without leverage.
Since the exchange is peer to peer, we never hold or control any of your assets, hence you are not exposed to our balance sheet, credit, default or counterparty risks (the blockchain is your effective counterparty). Veritaseum is a software concern, not a financial concern or intermediary! You can always track your assets and trade through the blockchain at any time. The capital is loaded in the wallet in the form of bitcoin, and for those who choose to minimize exposure to bitcoin market price volatility, leverage can be used to nearly eliminate the noise. You can also conduct trades using a demo mode and test coins, so as to use the system without risking actual capital.

Smart Contracts as Transaction Vehicles: The Safest Possible Way To Exchange Value

Veritaseum's UltraCoin smart contracts are: 1. highly flexible - you design your own derivatives yourself using your own parameters via our simple graphical user interface 2. self-executing 3. autonomous 4. unbreachable: we call them, the unbreakable promise! They are backed, fortified and stored by/on the blockchain itself 5. uber-transparent: simple click the "trace transaction" button to find the location and historical travel path of your assets anytime, from anywhere you have an internet connection

Trading Through a Balance Sheet-Based Financial Institution vs. Distributed, Decentralized, P2P Software Concern

What I do want to accomplish is the education through the fact that the Bitcoin protocol has given rise to the genesis of a new type of company, with a new business model that can offer a totally new type of product. As you were able to see from above, Veritaseum's UltraCoin offers a very uniquer product with many if not all of the attributes that potential competitors offer, with a slew of attributes that others can't touch. This is done at 1/5th of the price and at much less risk! When dealing with Veritaseum's UltraCoin, you can never get Gox'd because we never have (nor do we want) possession of your coins or fiat - every, at any time. Because we don't user our balance sheet (we are a software company, not a centralized exchange or brokedealer) you:
This is just the beginning of what is capable with our Internet 2.0 business models.
I implore you to download our:
There's also a lot of BTC industry research available for download as well as our blog which has some of the best fundamental and macro research available on the web. Hardcore traders, investors and speculators should check out my latest piece: It's All Out War, Pt 3: Is the Danish Krone Peg to Euro More Fragile Than Glass Beads? The Danish National Bank Infers So!
Any individuals or entities looking to provide liquidity to the system, individuals/companies who wish to partner, accredited investors looking for a piece of the action (you have to be willing to sign and NDA, we are quite open to working with anybody), or those who simply want to shoot the breeze should feel free to contact us.
An example of an UltraCoin smart contract summary
Here's some info about me, my team and what we're doing at Veritaseum:
Cordially, Reggie Middleton CEO, VeritaseumTM Inc.
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to investing [link] [comments]

Last week I asked what were the advantages of selling a pair using a third currency

https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/615753/whats_the_difference_between_selling_euraud_o
 
The forex signal app that I use is “we talk trade”. I know it’s not perfect but I’m new to trading and any help that I can have is welcome.
 
The differences that you guys talked about were:
 
Monday at 7:00 gmt I opened the pairs in a virtual account on etoro (the broker that I use)
I close them on Friday at 15:00 gmt.
 
I took some screen shots on Friday: http://imgur.com/a/hGfjT
 
1-
EuAud
 
2-
EuUsd
Aud/Usd
submitted by diogov9 to Forex [link] [comments]

FXPA White Paper: Sources of FX Market Liquidity During the Brexit Vote

The (brief and simple) whitepaper offers a behind-the-scenes look at liquidity flows during the Brexit vote. This isn't a topic that has garnered much attention, given the spot market had fairly minimal dysfunction during Brexit, and the paper itself doesn't offer the same level of highly detailed insight into bank trader activities that the criminal trial of HSBC FX trader Mark Johnson did.
What it does contain though is a very peculiar pearl of information, through its analysis of bank vs non-bank flows during the unfolding of the event.
Over the sample window, banks were responsible for 66.6% of Cable flow, 67.25% of EUGBP flow, 64.9% of EUUSD flow, 64.1% of USD/JPY and 61.7% of EUJPY
compare this to:
The proportion of flow in GBP/JPY was wild – with non-bank participants in one hour responsible for 96% of flow and in another, just 9%.
That non-bank participants should completely dominate flows for that cross seems notable.
One contributing factor is highlighted earlier in the paper.
The non-bank proportion rose in EUGBP and EUJPY, but could be because the data suggest the non-banks are more active in crosses than the “legs”. Several of these firms construct a price in the cross using the legs and because their technology is often nimbler and quicker, they are top of book in the more complex pairs.
(Emphasis mine)
What does all this mean for your trading?
For most people, it means nothing at all, as most retail traders get no further than the chart as printed and a series of set criteria.
For traders who work with market feel, or the lower timeframes, it raises some interesting question about whether or not non-bank liquidity feels different from bank dominated markets.
Non-bank liquidity providers are certainly working with a different agenda, different tech, and different liquidity networks from banks. And whilst not necessarily behaving unethically, they are also less likely to have a prudential-oriented client focus - banks in theory are trying to get best price for clients without disrupting the market, non-bank actors don't necessarily operate by these principles.
They also are more likely to operate with different risk parameters - high turnover, 'hot potato' providers have less depth of pocket than banks, so perhaps there might be more churn and candle-wick-y-ness, especially on thinner liquidity networks.
This is very subjective, and speculative, of course, but that is the nature of the way some of us play the game!
Here is the direct download link for the full text: https://fxpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FXPA-brexit1B-FINAL.pdf
(The FXPA is the Foreign Exchange Professionals Association, an industry group whose founders include Bloomberg, CME, ICE, State Street and Virtu. It's an organisational body, so does not take membership from individuals).
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

Bitcoin 1.0 vs 2.0 – or – A Comparison of the Largest USD/BTC Exchange & UltraCoin: Features & Costs

I was looking at the offerings of Bitfinex just now, after hearing that Coinbase had the highest volume of any US-based broker just weeks after opening an exchange (we’ll discuss that at a different time, since Coinbase is waiving fees meaning those users are hot money, but likely are part of the largest installed user base). What I found was illuminating, at least for me since I don’t follow the offerings of BTC brokers and exchanges that closely. Bitfinix offers leverage, plain vanilla swaps and TRS (total return swaps - basically fixed/variable rates in major fiat denominations for cryptocurrency (BTC. LTC, DRK) exposure). I said to myself, “Wow, that’s pretty advanced.” Then I looked at the fees page, and saw the swaps were priced at 15%. The first thing that came to mind was the difference, and limitations that come with the business models of first generation bitcoin companies and second generation bitcoin companies.
To put this into perspective, Veritaseum's UltraCoin offers user programmable swaps (ie. you can make your own CDS, TRS or plain vanilla, or even a custom swap) with exposures to not just 3 cryptos and 3 or 4 fiat currencies, but all major and most exotic currency pairs (dozens) as well as over 45,000 tickers covering EVERY major asset class (stocks, bonds, forex & commodities as well as cryptos) from exchanges throughout the world****. This is all capable at a sliding scale of 10 to 25 basis points, round trip. That's the equivalent of 5 bp to 12.5 bp per trade - or 1/150th of what Bitfinex charges for a much simpler and more constrained product. In addition, all of this is done without UltraCoin havin any possession of your funds, whatsoever. Veritaseum (the company behind UltraCoin) is a software concern, not a financial entiity, thus you have no exposure to our balance sheet. We cannot MT. Gox you and you essentially have no counterparty, default or credit risk because your counterparty is the blockchain, and you trade peer to peer vs. through a centralized exchange. Pretty big difference, no?
I will continue my discussion on pricing and features right after I delineate the distinction between the two.

The Difference between Bitcoin 1.0 and Bitcoin 2.0 Companies

To begin with, I'd like to make clear that not only is the title misleading, but all references to the same are essentially inaccurate. Bitcoin itself is still in beta stage (0.9x) thus its not accurate to refer to 1st and 2nd generations of bitcoin businesses. If anything, we're all in beta. Now that I've gotten that off of my chest... The first bold generation of bitcoin entrepreneurs (it's amazing that you can refer to companies born 2 and 3 years ago as a previous generation, it just goes to show you how fast this space is moving!) built businesses based upon bitcoin as a legacy commodity. Basically, they bought, sold, transmitted or transferred it as a unit of value. They did this because that's how everything was done for the last several thousand years in the financial services industry. Basically, they had no choice - or so they thought. Then came those who read the Satoshi whitepaper and the bitcoin wiki and saw a very different meaning. My team and I are among those entrepreneurs. We saw that bitcoins were malleable, programmable, tools with which one can use to paint upon the canvas of value. A far cry from the moving of static financial widgets from place to place. Think of moving bitcoins around (bitcoin 1.0 companies) vs programming bitcoins to act on their own according to their contractual owner's wishes (bitcoin 2.0 companies) akin to pushing a model T Ford around town vs. programming your driverless electric Tesla to go by the grocery store to pick up some fresh produce before swinging by the school to pick up your kids on the way home to meet you to take your wife (girlfriend?) out to dinner.

A Real World Comparison of Bitcoin Companies: Bitfinex (v1.0) vs Veritaseum (v2.0)

Tickers Available

Bitfinex: ~6 or 7 (this is an approximation) - BTC, LTC, DRK, USD & (I'm assuming EUR, CNY and maybe GBP). It is quite possible that I'm underestimating their portfolio here.
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: ~45,000+
Asset Classes Available
Bitfinex: Crypto and forex
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Forex, Cryptos and many indices
Costs Bitfinex: up to 40bp round trip, 1,500bp for swaps
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: up to 25 bp round trip for all products (primarily smart contract swap driven)
Leverage available: Bitfinex: Assumed to be up to 50x, traditional margin lending
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: up to 10,000x, with finite digital P/L parameters (no margin calls, no negative account drawdowns)
How does Veritaseum do it? We program the bitcoin to act according to a mutual agreement between two or more parties, then send it to the blockchain to act accordingly. These agreements are self executing, unbreakable promises known as "Smart Contracts". In this case, they are highly customizable, P2P OTC swaps, but we are working on a multitude of other products, services and solutions as well. We also supply very high level, unconflicted, independent and impartial strategy and research for our customers. Since we don't use our balance sheet and we don't act as a principal, we have no incentive to skewer the research in any particular direction.

Smart Contracts as Transaction Vehicles: The Safest Possible Way To Exchange Value

Veritaseum's UltraCoin BTC-based smart contracts are: 1. highly flexible - you design your own derivatives yourself using your own parameters via our simple graphical user interface 2. self-executing 3. autonomous 4. unbreachable: we call them, the unbreakable promise! They are backed, fortified and stored by/on the Bitcoin blockchain itself 5. uber-transparent: simple click the "trace transaction" button to find the location and historical travel path of your assets anytime, from anywhere you have an internet connection

Trading Through a Balance Sheet-Based Financial Institution vs. Distributed, Decentralized, P2P Software Concern

It's a matter of risk. This is not a dig at Bitfinex. After looking at their volume (significant) and their offerings (quite impressive given the newness of this industry) the last thing I would ever want to do is to disparage them. As a matter of fact, I give them kudos! Good job, fellas! What I do want to accomplish is the education through the fact that the Bitcoin protocol has given rise to the genesis of a new type of company, with a new business model that can offer a totally new type of product. As you were able to see from above, Veritaseum's UltraCoin offers a very uniquer product with many if not all of the attributes that potential competitors offer, with a slew of attributes that others can't touch. This is done at 1/150th of the price and at much less risk! When dealing with Veritaseum's UltraCoin, you can never get Gox'd because we never have (nor do we want) possession of your coins or fiat - every, at any time. Because we don't user our balance sheet (we are a software company, not a centralized exchange or brokedealer) you:
This is just the beginning of what is capable with bitcoin (and this is pure bitcoin, not altcoins, no tokens, no sidechains, just pure, old fashioned [at least as old as it can be considered] bitcoin) and 2.0 business models. Wait until you see the new stuff we'll be rolling out.
We are in beta, so please be aware of that and the shortcomings that it entails (although it is also my opinion that most bitcoin companies are in beta because bitcoin itself is in beta, as implied above). I implore you to download, and trade with, our:
There's also a lot of BTC industry research available for download as well as our blog which has some of the best fundamental and macro research available on the web. Hardcore traders, investors and speculators should check out my latest piece: It's All Out War, Pt 3: Is the Danish Krone Peg to Euro More Fragile Than Glass Beads? The Danish National Bank Infers So!
Any bitcoin-rich individuals or entities looking to provide liquidity to the system, individuals/compamies who wish to partner, accredited investors looking for a piece of the action (you have to be willing to sign and NDA, we are quite open to working with anybody), or those who simply want to shoot the breeze should feel free to contact us.
Bitcoin 2.0 An example of an UltraCoin smart contract summary
Here's some info about me, my team and what we're doing at Veritaseum:
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Lessons in Global Macro Trading Using Veritaseum’s UltraCoin BTC-Based Swaps: Speculation Capabilities That Surpass Even The Largest Hedge Funds & Investment Banks Pt. 1

We will be posting a series of tutorials on how to trade over 45,000 tickers, with leverage of up to 10,000x using only our smart contracts-enabled bitcoin wallet and peer to peer swaps. We will be covering how you can use thorough fundamental and macro-economic research to setup various trades in the system and model said trades using our Ultracoin modeling tool. A little about the UltraCoin wallet: It is a peer to peer system, it allows for its users to trade exposure to not only bitcoin, litecoin, Ripple and all of the major (and minor) forex pairs, but over 45,000 tickers of all of the major asset classes - stocks, bonds, indices, ETFs commodities and currencies. Since the trades are peer to peer, Veritaseum and the UltraCoin system doesn’t hold any of your assets, hence you are not exposed to our balance sheet, credit, default or counterparty risks (the blockchain is your effective counterparty). I believe we are the only trading or exchange system that can make such a claim. You can always track your bitcoin through the blockchain at any time. We also offer pricing leverage, of up to 10,000x! We are still in beta, though, and although we are confident the system is working, beta does mean beta. Caveat Emptor! Before we get started setting up trades, I would first like for you to: Read through the tutorial (which may not have all of the latest features described, but we will get to those in this article) - View the sample trade video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV27kQnUKHc Download the trade modeling spreadsheet -http://ultra-coin.com/index.php/download-now/summary/1-ultracoin-downloads/274-veritaseum-s-ultracoin-trade-modelling-spreadsheet A quick example of a simple trade setup: Currency SWAP A portfolio manager is having exposure to different currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, YEN and CNY. The portfolio manager wants to hedge currency fluctuation. Base currency of portfolio is EUR SWAP CONTRACT DETAILS RECEIVE: EUR=X PAY:USD=X
Now, to up the ante in terms of risk vs reward, you can add leverage to the pie. This is accomplished by going into the advanced tab and raising the leverage amount from "0". The higher the leverage, the more volatility in the returns, and the higher the probability you will exhaust your principal+collateral. For that reason, you should cushion against having your contract unwound (our version of getting "stopped out") by adding to your collateral amount, which is evident in the same "Advanced" dialog as the leverage controls. You also have the option of adjusting granular start, stop and cancel times for the contract. By modeling this trade with our trade design spreadsheet you can visually and numerically see the effects of adjusting leverage in each direction as well as increasing and decreasing collateral, principal and the length of the contract. There's a lot of information in the 2nd and 3rd tabs of the sheet. Please take advantage of it.
Hedge the future cash flows or the asset prices by creating currency SWAP contracts for foreign currencies against home currency. Read this link for in depth breakdown off a multifaceted trade, and more importanly the fundamental and macro research that went into the trade setup: http://www.ultra-coin.com/index.php/homes/item/89-is-the-danish-krona-peg-to-euro-more-fragile-than-glass-beads-the-danish-national-bank-infers-so
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Lessons in Global Macro Trading Using Veritaseum’s UltraCoin BTC-Based Swaps: Speculation Capabilities That Surpass Even The Largest Hedge Funds & Investment Banks Pt. 1

We will be posting a series of tutorials on how to trade over 45,000 tickers, with leverage of up to 10,000x using only our smart contracts-enabled bitcoin wallet and peer to peer swaps. We will be covering how you can use thorough fundamental and macro-economic research to setup various trades in the system and model said trades using our Ultracoin modeling tool. A little about the UltraCoin wallet: It is a peer to peer system, it allows for its users to trade exposure to not only bitcoin, litecoin, Ripple and all of the major (and minor) forex pairs, but over 45,000 tickers of all of the major asset classes - stocks, bonds, indices, ETFs commodities and currencies. Since the trades are peer to peer, Veritaseum and the UltraCoin system doesn’t hold any of your assets, hence you are not exposed to our balance sheet, credit, default or counterparty risks (the blockchain is your effective counterparty). I believe we are the only trading or exchange system that can make such a claim. You can always track your bitcoin through the blockchain at any time. We also offer pricing leverage, of up to 10,000x! We are still in beta, though, and although we are confident the system is working, beta does mean beta. Caveat Emptor! Before we get started setting up trades, I would first like for you to: Read through the tutorial (which may not have all of the latest features described, but we will get to those in this article) - View the sample trade video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV27kQnUKHc Download the trade modeling spreadsheet -http://ultra-coin.com/index.php/download-now/summary/1-ultracoin-downloads/274-veritaseum-s-ultracoin-trade-modelling-spreadsheet A quick example of a simple trade setup: Currency SWAP A portfolio manager is having exposure to different currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, YEN and CNY. The portfolio manager wants to hedge currency fluctuation. Base currency of portfolio is EUR SWAP CONTRACT DETAILS RECEIVE: EUR=X PAY:USD=X
Now, to up the ante in terms of risk vs reward, you can add leverage to the pie. This is accomplished by going into the advanced tab and raising the leverage amount from "0". The higher the leverage, the more volatility in the returns, and the higher the probability you will exhaust your principal+collateral. For that reason, you should cushion against having your contract unwound (our version of getting "stopped out") by adding to your collateral amount, which is evident in the same "Advanced" dialog as the leverage controls. You also have the option of adjusting granular start, stop and cancel times for the contract. By modeling this trade with our trade design spreadsheet you can visually and numerically see the effects of adjusting leverage in each direction as well as increasing and decreasing collateral, principal and the length of the contract. There's a lot of information in the 2nd and 3rd tabs of the sheet. Please take advantage of it.
Hedge the future cash flows or the asset prices by creating currency SWAP contracts for foreign currencies against home currency. Read this link for in depth breakdown off a multifaceted trade, and more importanly the fundamental and macro research that went into the trade setup: http://www.ultra-coin.com/index.php/homes/item/89-is-the-danish-krona-peg-to-euro-more-fragile-than-glass-beads-the-danish-national-bank-infers-so
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin 1.0 vs 2.0 – or – A Comparison of the Largest USD/BTC Exchange & UltraCoin: Features & Costs

I was looking at the offerings of Bitfinex just now, after hearing that Coinbase had the highest volume of any US-based broker just weeks after opening an exchange (we’ll discuss that at a different time, since Coinbase is waiving fees meaning those users are hot money, but likely are part of the largest installed user base). What I found was illuminating, at least for me since I don’t follow the offerings of BTC brokers and exchanges that closely. Bitfinix offers leverage, plain vanilla swaps and TRS (total return swaps - basically fixed/variable rates in major fiat denominations for cryptocurrency (BTC. LTC, DRK) exposure). I said to myself, “Wow, that’s pretty advanced.” Then I looked at the fees page, and saw the swaps were priced at 15%. The first thing that came to mind was the difference, and limitations that come with the business models of first generation bitcoin companies and second generation bitcoin companies.
To put this into perspective, Veritaseum's UltraCoin offers user programmable swaps (ie. you can make your own CDS, TRS or plain vanilla, or even a custom swap) with exposures to not just 3 cryptos and 3 or 4 fiat currencies, but all major and most exotic currency pairs (dozens) as well as over 45,000 tickers covering EVERY major asset class (stocks, bonds, forex & commodities as well as cryptos) from exchanges throughout the world****. This is all capable at a sliding scale of 10 to 25 basis points, round trip. That's the equivalent of 5 bp to 12.5 bp per trade - or 1/150th of what Bitfinex charges for a much simpler and more constrained product. In addition, all of this is done without UltraCoin havin any possession of your funds, whatsoever. Veritaseum (the company behind UltraCoin) is a software concern, not a financial entiity, thus you have no exposure to our balance sheet. We cannot MT. Gox you and you essentially have no counterparty, default or credit risk because your counterparty is the blockchain, and you trade peer to peer vs. through a centralized exchange. Pretty big difference, no?
I will continue my discussion on pricing and features right after I delineate the distinction between the two.

The Difference between Bitcoin 1.0 and Bitcoin 2.0 Companies

To begin with, I'd like to make clear that not only is the title misleading, but all references to the same are essentially inaccurate. Bitcoin itself is still in beta stage (0.9x) thus its not accurate to refer to 1st and 2nd generations of bitcoin businesses. If anything, we're all in beta. Now that I've gotten that off of my chest... The first bold generation of bitcoin entrepreneurs (it's amazing that you can refer to companies born 2 and 3 years ago as a previous generation, it just goes to show you how fast this space is moving!) built businesses based upon bitcoin as a legacy commodity. Basically, they bought, sold, transmitted or transferred it as a unit of value. They did this because that's how everything was done for the last several thousand years in the financial services industry. Basically, they had no choice - or so they thought. Then came those who read the Satoshi whitepaper and the bitcoin wiki and saw a very different meaning. My team and I are among those entrepreneurs. We saw that bitcoins were malleable, programmable, tools with which one can use to paint upon the canvas of value. A far cry from the moving of static financial widgets from place to place. Think of moving bitcoins around (bitcoin 1.0 companies) vs programming bitcoins to act on their own according to their contractual owner's wishes (bitcoin 2.0 companies) akin to pushing a model T Ford around town vs. programming your driverless electric Tesla to go by the grocery store to pick up some fresh produce before swinging by the school to pick up your kids on the way home to meet you to take your wife (girlfriend?) out to dinner.

A Real World Comparison of Bitcoin Companies: Bitfinex (v1.0) vs Veritaseum (v2.0)

Tickers Available

Bitfinex: ~6 or 7 (this is an approximation) - BTC, LTC, DRK, USD & (I'm assuming EUR, CNY and maybe GBP). It is quite possible that I'm underestimating their portfolio here.
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: ~45,000+
Asset Classes Available
Bitfinex: Crypto and forex
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Forex, Cryptos and many indices
Costs Bitfinex: up to 40bp round trip, 1,500bp for swaps
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: up to 25 bp round trip for all products (primarily smart contract swap driven)
Leverage available: Bitfinex: Assumed to be up to 50x, traditional margin lending
Veritaseum's UltraCoin: up to 10,000x, with finite digital P/L parameters (no margin calls, no negative account drawdowns)
How does Veritaseum do it? We program the bitcoin to act according to a mutual agreement between two or more parties, then send it to the blockchain to act accordingly. These agreements are self executing, unbreakable promises known as "Smart Contracts". In this case, they are highly customizable, P2P OTC swaps, but we are working on a multitude of other products, services and solutions as well. We also supply very high level, unconflicted, independent and impartial strategy and research for our customers. Since we don't use our balance sheet and we don't act as a principal, we have no incentive to skewer the research in any particular direction.

Smart Contracts as Transaction Vehicles: The Safest Possible Way To Exchange Value

Veritaseum's UltraCoin BTC-based smart contracts are: 1. highly flexible - you design your own derivatives yourself using your own parameters via our simple graphical user interface 2. self-executing 3. autonomous 4. unbreachable: we call them, the unbreakable promise! They are backed, fortified and stored by/on the Bitcoin blockchain itself 5. uber-transparent: simple click the "trace transaction" button to find the location and historical travel path of your assets anytime, from anywhere you have an internet connection

Trading Through a Balance Sheet-Based Financial Institution vs. Distributed, Decentralized, P2P Software Concern

It's a matter of risk. This is not a dig at Bitfinex. After looking at their volume (significant) and their offerings (quite impressive given the newness of this industry) the last thing I would ever want to do is to disparage them. As a matter of fact, I give them kudos! Good job, fellas! What I do want to accomplish is the education through the fact that the Bitcoin protocol has given rise to the genesis of a new type of company, with a new business model that can offer a totally new type of product. As you were able to see from above, Veritaseum's UltraCoin offers a very uniquer product with many if not all of the attributes that potential competitors offer, with a slew of attributes that others can't touch. This is done at 1/150th of the price and at much less risk! When dealing with Veritaseum's UltraCoin, you can never get Gox'd because we never have (nor do we want) possession of your coins or fiat - every, at any time. Because we don't user our balance sheet (we are a software company, not a centralized exchange or brokedealer) you:
This is just the beginning of what is capable with bitcoin (and this is pure bitcoin, not altcoins, no tokens, no sidechains, just pure, old fashioned [at least as old as it can be considered] bitcoin) and 2.0 business models. Wait until you see the new stuff we'll be rolling out.
We are in beta, so please be aware of that and the shortcomings that it entails (although it is also my opinion that most bitcoin companies are in beta because bitcoin itself is in beta, as implied above). I implore you to download, and trade with, our:
There's also a lot of BTC industry research available for download as well as our blog which has some of the best fundamental and macro research available on the web. Hardcore traders, investors and speculators should check out my latest piece: It's All Out War, Pt 3: Is the Danish Krone Peg to Euro More Fragile Than Glass Beads? The Danish National Bank Infers So!
Any bitcoin-rich individuals or entities looking to provide liquidity to the system, individuals/compamies who wish to partner, accredited investors looking for a piece of the action (you have to be willing to sign and NDA, we are quite open to working with anybody), or those who simply want to shoot the breeze should feel free to contact us.
Bitcoin 2.0 An example of an UltraCoin smart contract summary
Here's some info about me, my team and what we're doing at Veritaseum:
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What is the EUR/USD Forex Pair and How Can You Trade It? 1750$ usd profit in forex eur vs usd 2 min intraday ... Forex - EUR / USD 1 Hour Trading Strategy - Fully ... Trading the EUR/USD? Avoid this Trap! (Warning!) - YouTube eur vs usd event trading in forex market share bazar # ... Forex trading EUR USD euro vs american dollar 6th Nov 2020 ... EUR USD in 2020  Technical Forex Analysis - YouTube How to Trade the EUR USD (Warning!!) - YouTube Why, When & How to Trade EUR/USD - YouTube How to trade the EUR/USD: Tips & Trading Strategies - YouTube

View the reciprocal forex rates chart (US Dollar - USD / Euro - EUR) by tapping the link near the symbol (EURUSD). You can customize the forex quotes table below to display your favourite currency pairs. Just choose "manage favourites" in under the "Select Currencies" menu. Symbol Bid Ask High Low Open Change Time; Major Pairs US Dollar Pairs Euro British Pound Swiss Franc Japanese Yen ... EUR/USD is one of the most traded currency pairs in the world. It represents the value of the US dollar per one euro. The euro is a relativity new currency when compared with the other majors, it was established by the provisions in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty and is managed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Eurosystem (comprised of the central banks of the eurozone). Member nations of ... #1: Trading Sessions. One important factor that affects the trading of the EUR/USD pair is the timing of the trading sessions. Traders ought to know when there will be high volatility and at what ... EUR/USD is one of the most traded currency pairs in the world. It represents the value of the US dollar per one euro. The euro is a relativity new currency when compared with the other majors, it was established by the provisions in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty and is managed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Eurosystem (comprised of the central banks of the eurozone). Member nations of ... Despite a number of benefits to trading the EUR/USD pair, there also exist certain drawbacks: Volatility – The high levels of volatility within the EUR/USD pair can result in winning positions swiftly turning into losing ones. Often, no amount of historical data and 20-year charts can prepare you for the speed at which prices can swing. EUR/USD is the most popular pair for Forex currency traders worldwide and with good reason. Trading Euro to US dollar (or vice versa) gives currency traders the opportunity to make use of the world’s two largest economies and to take advantage of the volatility and liquidity intrinsic to this pair. Forex Trading With EUR/USD. By. Tim Morris - January 8, 2020. 0. 2610. Facebook. Twitter. Pinterest. WhatsApp. Linkedin. ReddIt. Email. Tumblr. Telegram. Mix. LINE. The EUR/USD currency pair shows two of the largest economies in the world. For this reason, the pair is no wonder the most popular traded currency pair worldwide. While the pair attract traders with its rich volatility and volume ...

[index] [17537] [16068] [7236] [11586] [6166] [17314] [7035] [4747] [4374] [18884]

What is the EUR/USD Forex Pair and How Can You Trade It?

Strategy Method Video ( https://youtu.be/ONEzSeViXB8 ) فيديو شرح الإستراتيجية This channel provides a recording of trades in the trading markets ... Out of the major currency pairs the most popular is the EUR/USD. This video could be extremely helpful for people who are about to start trading forex. -Subs... Check Mark's Premium Course: https://price-action-trading.teachable.com/ Check our website: http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/ Please like, subsc... The EUR/USD forex pair is undoubtedly number one in terms of trading volume, as it represents the two largest economic powers globally. The EU is actually second behind the US in terms of nominal ... eur vs usd event trading in forex market share bazar #usaelection Forex 1 hour trading strategy using EUR / USD chart - explained with SELL ZONES and BUY ZONES by Dada Dadiani (TradeGuardian) Do not lose your money! If you really want to know how to trade the EUR USD without getting destroyed, this is a must-watch. Trade the Euro Dollar with cauti... ★ Trading the EUR/USD Discussing the EUR/USD. ★ You can trade the EUR/USD at Bux Markets http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/ccount/click.php?id=62 ★ If ... 1750$ usd profit in forex eur vs usd 2 min intraday trading 2 min forex intraday trick #forexlover Trade with zero comissions, no transaction fees and the tightest spreads on our app here: iOS: https://bit.ly/capitalcom-ios Android: http://bit.ly/capitalco...

https://binaryoptiontrade.netenre.ml